Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 2 minutes ago, and this point is in it.
2 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest 11 km from here.
This alert is in force until 30 September 2026, 04:30 UTC.
It is the 2nd strongest of the 6 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 14 July 2026. The last comparable one was on 29 September 2026. 5 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 5:37PM MST until September 29 at 9:30PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ
Nearby, since 14 July 2026
- August 30, 2026 · 9.0 km
- September 29, 2026 · score 28 · 15.9 km
- July 14, 2026 · 16.9 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 16 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 16 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.60/1 |
| Coordinates | 32.8811, -110.5863 |
| Nearest City | Oro Valley (65 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 0 within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | minor |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-30T00:37:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.84c970bdf52583efef2d73b5d5c59f5f844ea49b.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-30T00:37:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-29T22:20:29.053Z. Material modification: 2026-09-30T01:19:08.484Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-30T00:47:05.362Z · data_change
Index 37 → 16.
2026-09-30T00:31:09.497Z · data_change
Index 16 → 37.
18 retained revisions changed source fields this page does not show; the index, severity and version stayed the same.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.84c970bdf52583efef2d73b5d5c59f5f844ea49b.001.1 |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Graham, AZ; Greenlee, AZ; Cochise, AZ; Cochise, AZ; Graham, AZ and 3 more areas |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 5:37PM MST until September 29 at 9:30PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-29T21:30:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Tucson AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 9 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.30002bda7c14d7aecd5295829558dbc7ab05001d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.48a87e5c9ed32a65a0a50cc3312d2703ca58a606.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e552d99325ad0b7c0e899e2bbef918ececc2d190.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.61aefc9662732eff0b4a22ce23b274196e233793.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7ad856de398b796e2ddac4a9f9a8af26cf5bd5a5.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3d8f41591b869e6c642f20d83978c0ce0f768273.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2311a3281dbacaa52575dee14c2e1b13e18417a2.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0567b8103680da42757503dfa4ed3f46520e2495.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b298e1ae41d68a722adadc09991ad33b5b449ca8.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | Heavy rain |
| Iem LsrCode | R |
| Iem LsrType | RAIN |
| Iem Magnitude | 4.29 |
| Iem Unit | Inch |
| Iem City | 4 WNW Summerhaven |
| Iem County | Pima |
| Iem State | AZ |
| Iem Wfo | TWC |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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